Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.595705 25.767114 28.135237 30.925260 34.142690 37.761375 42.174551
2025-08-03 19.830407 22.681061 26.016706 30.266129 35.622553 42.274429 51.367931
2025-08-10 17.360648 20.544944 24.473687 29.795807 37.015428 46.790562 61.656975
2025-08-17 15.727850 19.125940 23.502590 29.745541 38.776205 52.014414 74.363439
2025-08-24 14.379885 17.864292 22.508345 29.418875 39.975065 56.578382 87.503734
2025-08-31 13.312379 16.834851 21.666893 29.124237 41.080907 61.151484 102.310655
2025-09-07 12.432788 15.962306 20.925437 28.834186 42.080200 65.709178 118.999857
2025-09-14 11.720055 15.251433 20.328915 28.660313 43.196938 70.704435 139.103235
2025-09-21 11.048519 14.539734 19.654013 28.257856 43.814577 74.857345 159.553068
2025-09-28 10.823262 14.456855 19.914242 29.412603 47.462318 86.356899 208.893330
2025-10-05 10.328422 13.930333 19.429562 29.220454 48.469941 92.276957 246.331921
2025-10-12 9.905538 13.482818 19.030139 29.124706 49.644699 98.995083 294.449838
2025-10-19 9.594118 13.194765 18.878111 29.484085 51.907945 109.595009 376.889647
2025-10-26 9.215677 12.778366 18.481570 29.342913 53.061228 117.683236 464.153473
2025-11-02 8.850628 12.361501 18.052765 29.091601 53.923287 125.358377 570.559877
2025-11-09 8.563559 12.052974 17.785733 29.126839 55.483217 136.129290 742.813816
2025-11-16 8.249167 11.682237 17.383524 28.844899 56.207825 144.462630 938.143580
2025-11-23 7.960371 11.338473 17.005586 28.573116 56.915118 153.232643 1208.172184
2025-11-30 7.691978 11.015176 16.643206 28.297089 57.567748 162.295540 1589.370818
2025-12-07 7.457715 10.737687 16.345984 28.130460 58.499168 173.291208 2216.672046
2025-12-14 7.208304 10.423297 15.962610 27.739907 58.730967 181.388373 3010.791311
2025-12-21 7.173364 10.471269 16.250066 28.863787 63.673649 217.379216 8302.245872
2025-12-28 6.974159 10.226793 15.972841 28.677078 64.577911 232.427160 16973.644816